Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Warn

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."