The Failure of the 28-Point Peace Proposal for Ukraine: Why Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Stumble

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.